Global oil demand rebound from pandemic’s lows prompts price spike forecasts

Global oil demand rebound from pandemic’s lows prompts price spike forecasts

CALGARY — Oil analysts say a rebound in the world’s hunger for oil has already started after demand destruction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic fell far short of what many experts had expected.

Amrita Sen, co-founder and director of research for international consultancy Energy Aspects, says the bounce in demand will outstrip the ability of producers to restore supply, resulting in average Brent oil prices rising from about US$43 per barrel this year to US$66 next year and US$83 in 2023.

In a presentation at the virtual TD Securities energy conference, Sen says pandemic lockdowns of countries and industries resulted in forecasts for a 30 to 40 per cent decline from pre-pandemic global oil demand of about 100 million barrels per day.

She says her organization expected the decline to reach 28 million bpd but the maximum drop was 18 million bpd in April. The industry’s “spare capacity” has now has fallen to about 12 million bpd.

Sen says the shallower drop in demand and quick recovery illustrates how dependent the world is on crude and suggests that its oil dependence will not be diminished in the near term.

In an energy price forecast released Monday, accounting firm Deloitte also makes note of the oil demand recovery and predicts Brent crude prices will rise from an average of US$39 per barrel this year to US$46.50 in 2021 and US$64 in 2023.

“The market thought that demand would fall by between 30 and 40 million barrels a day,” said Sen, noting that spot oil prices fell to negative levels at one point because investors believed demand would reach extremely low levels.

“COVID apparently was going to speed up peak oil demand (but) I would go the other way and argue that, if anything, COVID’s shown us how much oil is required. Even in the worst case possible for demand, we fell by less than 20 per cent.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 6, 2020.

The Canadian Press

oil & gas

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

school
Rimbey Christian School building projects nearing completion

New gym, soccer field and skating rink will be open to community use as well

SARS-CoV-2 virus particles, which causes COVID-19, emerge from the surface of cells isolated from a patient in the U.S. and cultured in a lab in a 2020 electron microscope image. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP-HO, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases - Rocky Mountain Laboratories
Alberta now has 17,743 active cases of COVID-19

Province now has 17,743 active cases

Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, confirmed eight additional virus-deaths Monday afternoon including one in central zone. (Photo by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)
Central zone up to 1,249 active COVID-19 cases

Red Deer sits at 257 active COVID-19 cases

Kelowna RCMP Stock Image.
Bentley post office damaged, armed robbery at Subway

Sylvan Lake RCMP respond to incidents in Bentley last month

Ten-month-old Aidan Deschamps poses for a photo with his parents Amanda Sully and Adam Deschamps in this undated handout photo. Ten-month-old Aidan Deschamps was the first baby in Canada to be diagnosed with spinal muscular atrophy through Ontario’s newborn screening program. The test was added to the program six days before he was born. THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO, Children’s Hospital Eastern Ontario *MANDATORY CREDIT*
First newborn tested for spinal muscular atrophy in Canada hits new milestones

‘If Aidan had been born any earlier or anywhere else our story would be quite different’

People line up at a COVID-19 assessment centre during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scarborough, Ont., on Wednesday, December 2, 2020. Toronto and Peel region continue to be in lockdown. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
COVID-19 vaccine approval could be days away as pressures mount on health-care system

Many health officials in regions across the country have reported increasing pressures on hospitals

File Photo
Sylvan Lake Town Council squashes mask bylaw

The bylaw did not make it past first reading, after a 4-3 vote defeated the motion

A logo for Netflix on a remote control is seen in Portland, Ore.,Aug. 13, 2020. Experts in taxation and media say a plan announced Monday by the government will ultimately add to the cost of digital services and goods sold by foreign companies. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP-Jenny Kane
‘Netflix tax’ for digital media likely to raise prices for consumers, experts say

The government says Canadian companies already collect those taxes when they make digital sales

Gaming content was big on YouTube in 2020. (Black Press Media files)
What did Canadians watch on Youtube during isolation? Workouts, bird feeders

Whether it was getting fit or ‘speaking moistly,’ Canadians had time to spare this year

A teacher places the finishing touches on the welcome sign at Hunter’s Glen Junior Public School which is part of the Toronto District School Board (TDSB) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scarborough, Ont., on Sept. 14, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
Hindsight 2020: How do you preserve a year many Canadians would rather forget?

Figuring out how to preserve the story of the pandemic poses a series of challenges

Team Manitoba celebrate after defeating Team Ontario to win the Scotties Tournament of Hearts in Moose Jaw, Sask., Sunday, Feb. 23, 2020. Curling Canada wants Calgary’s Canada Olympic Park to be a curling hub for the season’s top events. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
Calgary facility set to become curling hub during pandemic

Curling Canada has provisional approval for Calgary’s hub-city concept from Alberta Health

Most Read